Wild Speculation Time

Well, it didn't take long for the news that Paul Aronsohn was dropping out of the race to lead to some speculation about who the nominee will be. Before I get into that, I do want to wish Paul well with where life takes him. It couldn't have been an easy decision to make, but it's a sign of character that he put family first.

So, on to the wild speculation.

Right now, Camille Abate is the only declared candidate, and has declared on her blog that she will beat Garrett next year.

In addition to Abate, there are several other names being thrown around. Here's a list of people from different sites:

Blue Jersey:

James Tedesco, Mayor of Paramus
David DeGerolamo, Phillipsburg Council President

2008 Race Tracker:

Mayor Tedesco
Jim Sekelsky - Mayor of Ogdensburg
Anne Wolfe - 2004 Challenger

One has to believe Bergen County Executive Dennis McNerney will think about jumping into the Fifth. McNerney received 69,641 votes last year from towns in the Fifth, topping Republican challenger Todd Caliguire by 9,300. McNerney's total also bested both Aronsohn (62,944) and our Representative Scott Garrett (67,287). Caliguire was an awful candidate, but the returns are impressive in any context.

I'm no fan of McNerney's association with Papa Joe or his embrace of pay-to-play. Objectively speaking; whoever runs on the Dem side would need to pick up a big chunk of the 18,000 vote cushion Garrett gets in the Western part of the District from Bergen in order to be competitive. Name recognition will be a big part of that and McNerney has his name all over the County, albeit at questionable taxpayer expense. I'd be willing to bet he has better name recognition than Garrett in the Bergen towns of the Fifth.

Like I said, this is all wild speculation, but it should be interesting to watch how this all plays out over the next couple of months. As candidates come forward, either Republican or Democratic, I'll let folks know.